The International Monetary Fund has disclosed that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product per capita dropped from $877.07 in 2024 to $835.49 in 2025, marking a 4.74 percent decline.
According to data published on the IMF’s website on Thursday, the nation’s GDP per capita has been on a continuous decline since 2014, when it stood at $3,220.
GDP per capita is a key indicator that measures the average standard of living by dividing a country’s total economic output by its population.
Despite the current decline, the IMF predicts a gradual recovery in the coming years, with Nigeria’s GDP per capita expected to surpass $1,000 by 2028, reaching $1,040.
The data also highlights that most sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, remain in the $500–$2,500 GDP per capita range, with some below $500.
The drop in GDP per capita coincides with the National Bureau of Statistics rebasing Nigeria’s GDP to reflect previously unaccounted sectors, such as digital economy activities, pension funds, the National Health Insurance Scheme, modular refineries, domestic household employment, and illegal and hidden activities.
However, business confidence in Nigeria is on the rise, as reflected in the latest Stanbic IBTC Bank’s Purchasing Managers’ Index report.
The report showed that private sector activity continued its growth momentum from late 2024 into January 2025, with improvements in new orders and business activity.
Commenting on the report, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Muyiwa Oni, said, “Nigeria’s private sector activity sustained its improvement in January 2025, albeit lower than levels seen in December 2024. We note an increase in both output (53.7 vs. December 2024: 54.8) and new orders (52.6 vs. December 2024: 53.2), although slightly weaker than that seen at the end of 2024, on account of improving customer demand and more willingness to commit to new projects. Given the rising new orders, companies took on additional workers in January—representing the second month running in which this has been the case.”
He further noted that “input prices increased at a slower pace while the pace of increase in output prices is the slowest since July 2024. Headline inflation averaged 33.1 per cent y/y in 2024 from an average of 24.52 per cent y/y in 2023, mostly driven by significant FX depreciation; renewed petrol price increases in line with full petrol price liberalisation; structurally low food supplies exacerbated by high extreme weather conditions; and increased food demand, especially during the festive season.”
Meanwhile, the IMF projects Nigeria’s real GDP growth at 3.2 percent in 2025, with inflation expected to decline to 25 percent.
This estimate is more conservative than the Nigerian Economic Summit Group’s projection of 5.5 percent for the same period.
The NESG unveiled its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report with the theme ‘Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.’
NESG Chief Economist and Director of Research, Olusegun Omisakin, emphasized the role of reforms in achieving growth, stating, “A GDP growth rate of 5.5 per cent is achievable if Nigeria continues with stability-focused reforms. However, inefficient policy implementation and economic constraints could limit growth to 3.4 per cent, and a reversal of reforms could see it drop to 2.7 per cent. The quality of policy execution in 2025 will determine whether Nigeria reaches its stabilisation goals or falls short.”
At the same event, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, projected a 4.1 percent economic growth in 2025, alongside a significant reduction in inflation and improved foreign exchange inflows.
“Estimates of key economic indicators suggest a positive outlook for 2025 in particular; GDP growth is projected to rise to 4.17 per cent in 2025 from 3.36 per cent in 2024,” Cardoso stated.
“This growth is anchored on sustained implementation of government reforms, stable crude oil prices, and improvements in domestic oil production. Increased refining capacity, driven by the Dangote refinery and the revitalisation of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries, should significantly enhance economic activity. A stable exchange rate will also play a crucial role in maintaining this positive trajectory. Domestic inflation is projected to decline in 2025 as the impact of economic reforms begins to take hold. Achieving our overall objectives requires effective collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities alongside private sector participation,” Cardoso stated.
