Satellite imagery released on Tuesday reveals that Israel’s recent strike on Iran appears to have severely impacted a facility run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard in Shahroud, a base critical for ballistic missile construction and rocket launches associated with its space program.
According to AP, this site, located in Semnan province, previously unacknowledged by Iran, raises significant questions about Israel’s early Saturday attack, particularly as it involved the Revolutionary Guard — a potent force within Iran’s ruling structure.
Notably, Tehran has only reported Israeli strikes in other provinces, like Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran, omitting any mention of Semnan’s remote Shahroud facility.
The assault likely hampers the Guard’s capabilities to produce the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it considers vital as a counterbalance to Israel.
For years, Iran has invested in building up this arsenal as a strategic deterrent, given its inability to access advanced Western weaponry that both Israel and some Gulf neighbors have acquired, especially from the United States.
Before this strike, AP analysis of satellite photos also confirmed substantial damage at two other missile-related facilities around Tehran, adding further pressure on Iran’s missile program.
According to missile expert, Fabian Hinz, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who examines Iranian missile capabilities, the question now lies in whether Iranian production has merely been disrupted or significantly crippled, as some suggest.
“We’ve seen enough imagery to show there’s an impact,” he noted.
While Iranian officials, including the country’s U.N. mission, have yet to comment, the Israeli military indirectly acknowledged the operation, citing its goal of targeting “missile manufacturing facilities.”
High-resolution satellite images by Planet Labs PBC reveal the extent of damage at Shahroud Space Center.
A major central structure at the base was destroyed, and the shadows of its structural framework could still be seen on images taken Tuesday morning.
Officials and inspectors appeared at the scene, with a marked increase in vehicle presence, including around the main entrance.
In addition to this main building, three smaller structures south of it and another hangar northeast of the site also show signs of damage, indicating that Israel’s strike aimed for precision.
Recent construction around the Shahroud base points to ongoing development, but this assault likely disrupted core operations.
Hinz observed that the destroyed facility likely housed high-explosives operations due to the surrounding earthen berms, possibly dedicated to solid propellant mixing and casting — essential components in Iran’s missile capabilities.
Notably, large crates near the facility may contain missile motors, potentially related to Iran’s Kheibar Shekan and Fattah 1 missiles.
The latter, Iran claims, can reach speeds up to Mach 15, or fifteen times the speed of sound, and has featured in Iranian strikes during the Israel-Hamas conflict and subsequent ground engagements in Lebanon.
The Shahroud strike, coupled with attacks across Iran, signals an increased strain on Iran’s leadership as it evaluates the damage to its missile stockpile and manages domestic and international perceptions.
Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, addressed foreign diplomats, emphasizing that Iran’s air defenses had minimized the impact.
“Due to preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces, and timely reaction by the country’s air defense, limited damage was caused to some of the points hit,” he claimed, while highlighting efforts to repair the affected facilities.
This attack took place amid growing concerns that Iran’s space program, run by the Revolutionary Guard, doubles as a missile development effort.
The Guard, accountable solely to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, unveiled its space program in 2020, launching satellites using mobile platforms from sites such as the Shahroud base.
According to the U.S. intelligence community’s 2024 threat assessment, Iran’s advancements in satellite launch vehicles potentially narrow the window needed to create intercontinental ballistic missiles due to technological overlaps.
Such ICBMs could theoretically carry nuclear payloads — an increasing worry as Iran enriches uranium near weapons-grade, though Tehran maintains that its nuclear and space programs are civilian in nature.
Missile expert Hinz emphasized that much like the nuclear program, Iran’s approach with ballistic missile technology leverages dual-use technology under a civilian guise, leaving open the possibility of weaponization if desired or utilizing such knowledge as leverage in negotiations over sanctions.
In the wake of the assault, ongoing satellite assessments highlight the vulnerability of Iranian air defense and missile infrastructure.
An analysis by Britain’s Royal United Services Institute underscores the message to Tehran: its defenses and missile bases remain vulnerable, with further strikes possible should Iran attempt retaliation.
