In a first time, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, viewed China as a distant threat, but on Wednesday, the alliance accused Beijing of being a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine, urging it to cease shipments of weapons components and other technology essential for Russia’s military rebuilding.
This declaration, approved by the alliance’s 32 leaders just before a dinner at the White House, marks a significant shift.
Until 2019, NATO had only mentioned China as a concern in the blandest terms. Now, for the first time, NATO has echoed Washington’s denunciations of China’s military support for Russia.
The declaration implicitly threatens that China’s increasing support for Russia will have consequences.
China “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation,” the declaration stated, highlighting “its large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base.”
While the declaration did not specify these costs, economic sanctions limiting China’s access to global markets are a likely first step.
A year ago, many European leaders were reluctant to challenge Beijing, particularly countries like Germany that see China as a key market for high-end products. Initially, many dismissed the 2022 agreement for a “partnership without limits” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Even President Joe Biden expressed doubts about the partnership’s potential impact, stating in March 2023 during a trip to Canada, “I think we vastly exaggerate” the partnership and noting that China hadn’t yet provided significant weapons to Russia.
However, 29 months into the Ukraine invasion, perspectives have shifted dramatically.
While China has refrained from supplying full weapons systems, it has supplied computer chips, advanced software, and components essential for Russia to rebuild its defense industrial base.
The Biden administration provided intelligence evidence to NATO countries to persuade skeptics who doubted China’s central role in the war.
This effort succeeded after the U.S. published names of Chinese front companies and manufacturers channeling technology to Russia in a Treasury Department economic sanctions order.
Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, commented, “The declaration demonstrates that NATO allies now collectively understand this challenge and are calling on the PRC to cease this activity.”
He warned that continued support from the PRC would degrade its relations with Europe, and the U.S. would impose sanctions on PRC entities involved in this activity, in coordination with European allies.
The declaration also accuses China of “malicious cyber and hybrid activities, including disinformation” targeting the U.S. and Europe.
This week, the U.S. and several allies warned of a Chinese Ministry of State Security-linked hacking group focused on stealing government and commercial secrets. U.S. officials have also been concerned about a different group planting malware in critical U.S. infrastructure.
China has denied preparing for cyberattacks or being a significant factor in the Ukraine war.
Chinese officials have accused Washington of hypocrisy, noting the substantial military aid the U.S. is providing to Ukraine.
In May, after American sanctions were imposed, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin called the U.S. accusations “hypocritical and highly irresponsible,” but did not deny the specifics.
The conflict over China’s role in Ukraine threatens to undo the goodwill developed between Biden and Xi during their meeting in November in California.
At that time, Biden privately warned Xi about interfering in the 2024 presidential election, but there was no evidence yet of China becoming a major player in supporting Russia’s war effort.
China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began relatively recently. Just before the invasion in February 2022, China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, told the Munich Security Conference that Beijing respected the sovereignty of independent nations, including Ukraine.
However, China has since openly supported Russia’s efforts, including numerous joint military projects and exercises. Xi and Putin have met approximately 50 times as presidents, abandoning their joint efforts with Europe to contain North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and prevent Iran from following a similar path.
